The Grey Side of Smartphone Market Share: What the Numbers Don’t Reveal

Market share reports from #IDC, #Counterpoint, and #Canalys often shape how brands are perceived in terms of shipment data. But in India’s hyper-competitive smartphone space, one invisible force distorts the picture. The grey market.

1. How Grey Channels Skew Reality

For online-first brands like #Poco, #OnePlus, #iQOO and select #Realme models, up to 80% of “online” sales aren’t actual consumer purchases.

Aggregators bulk-buy units, diverting them into mainline retail or exporting them informally.

This inflates online share, creating a misleading view of demand from the channel.

Even hybrid brands see diversion from online, for models where online gets priority in allocation, for models with higher demand not met by mainline distributors, for models with extra offers or discounts online. The scale though may be lower than online centric brands.

If adjusted, the reported 35–40% online share would likely drop to ~20%.

Key Insight: Brands focusing only on online may show high “shipments” but struggle with actual consumer traction. Sustainable growth lies in a strong mainline presence. Just look at the top 5, where only mainline heavy brands are growing.

2. Premium Brands’ Grey-Market Twist

#Apple and #Samsung face a different challenge: re-exports.

High price gaps between countries create arbitrage opportunities.

In 2022, about 1.2 million high-end smartphones worth ₹10,800 crore moved through unofficial channels.

Grey exports now account for 4–5% of India’s smartphone exports.

3. Why It Matters for Rankings

In a market where top brands are separated by slim margins, even minor grey-market shifts can flip rankings.

Shipment based leadership often hides reality.

Actual sell out to end consumers will tell a different story.

Current research models rarely adjust for these distortions.

What one gets to see is "Shadow Volumes" which inflate leadership specially in online focused and premium brands.

4. The Bottom Line

India’s smartphone market is maturing, but grey market leakages obscure the truth.

Not all smartphones shipped are sold where or how brands intend.

Activation data could improve accuracy but remains unreliable.

Until leakages are factored in, market share rankings must be read with caution.

Takeaway:

What looks like online dominance or shipment leadership may simply be Shadow Volumes. Real growth comes from real demand and that can be measured primarily through sell out from mainline channels. Having said that, the job of getting accurate customer sale data is not easy.